In the modern digital era its easy to miss seeing the forest because of the tree’s, but the conflict with North Korea is what historians will someday call “a big freaking deal”. The Cuban Missile Crisis is the only meaningful comparison for the diplomatic dance that we are currently experiencing with North Korea, where nuclear powers openly discuss the potential use of nuclear weaponry, in the nuclear era. The problem is John F. Kennedy and Nikita Krushchev performed the tango, and it seems that Donald J. Trump and Kim Jung Un are just aimlessly twerking on the sidewalk. The real danger in nuclear weapons has always been that the codes would be in the hands of unstable men, and calling Trump or the North Korean leader merely “unstable” would be kind.
13 Days in October ’62
The Cuban Missile Crisis is one of the most fascinating moments in the Cold War, one on which world history could have turned. The quick version is that the Soviet Union was poised to place medium long-range missiles, capable of hitting the United States in Cuba. Once this was discovered by U2 spy planes flying over Cuba, it didn’t take long for it to be leaked to the media. This was a different world than 2017, void of the constant communication of the twittersphere or 24 hour cable news networks, where there was no diplomatic relations between the USA and U.S.S.R. American’s watched, literally not sure if Soviet ships carrying the remaining components to make the nuclear missiles functional, as the Soviet ships turned around because of a “blockade” by Kennedy and engineered by Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara. This was accomplished with careful words, back-channel communications, and a cautious respect for how the tone of the conversation could escalate things beyond repair.
What seemed like an inevitable clash between world powers was avoided by good men on both sides. Kennedy was battling military advisers, and the world view that saw Communism as a real threat to American values, and believed the Domino Theory was a very real thing. Krushchev was battling hard-line elements in his own government threatening a coup, and neither could talk to one another because the Cold War didn’t always make a lot of sense. Kennedy refused the advice of his advisers who called for a first-strike approach, never really sure what the intelligence he received meant in regards to Krushchev’s intentions.
Eventually a back channel communication between Attorney General Robert Kennedy, JFK’s brother and most trusted adviser, and Soviet diplomat Anatoly Fyodorovich Dobrynin helped find a solution. It involved the removal of non-operational missiles in Turkey (the Soviets didn’t know they didn’t work) for the removal of missiles in Cuba. To avoid looking soft on communism and getting hammered by a media steeped in cold war hysteria, the US pushed it out 6 months. Seemed like a diplomatic win for the US, and a chance at self preservation for the U.S.S.R. That took a lot of good, smart men, that were able to both maintain political normalcy at home and avoid nuclear apocalypse for the good of humanity.
The USA and North Korea
It’s important that all Americans quit pretending that North Korea is not a nuclear power. The People’s Republic claim’s they tested a hydrogen bomb and one of these has never been practically dropped in world military history. This bomb was tested as 8 times more powerful than “Little Boy” dropped on Hiroshima that proceeded the end of World War II by a Norwegian geoscience research foundation. You can blame President’s from Eisenhower to Obama for this, but they have nuclear weapons and we need to proceed with that knowledge. Its not comforting to know that you are negotiating with a North Korean leader whose most trusted American is Dennis Rodman, enough said. It’s less comforting to some days wonder if the guy who wants his foreign policy with US done by Rodman isn’t the more stable of the two.
American citizens helped escalate an already difficult international situation with the cluster-calhoun that was the 2016 election. Donald Trump has no foreign policy experience or depth, and his campaign and history is void of a clear philosophy. His foreign policy more closely resembles Homer Simpson than it does the policies of Ronald Reagan. Telling North Korea we will meet them “Fire and Fury” or calling the dear leader Rocket Man aren’t super helpful to avoiding nuclear escalation. The problem with language translation is that between Trump sarcastically insulting his adversary with Rocket Man, and the North Korean translation, it just comes out as an insult. To do something that cavalier means you don’t understand the circumstances, you don’t care, or your simply unstable. Regardless there is no American diplomat past or present that would give Donald Trump’s diplomatic grade anything better than a D- on North Korea thus far.
Uh-Oh
Dictators don’t retire. Kim Jung Un has two choices, he will either pass on his legacy, which is a rare feat for a tyrannical leader impressively accomplished for three generations in North Korea. If he is deposed he will be executed like all deposed dictators that have come before him. If tyrants don’t commit suicide like Adolph Hitler, they will be executed by their own people like Saddam Hussein, Hosni Mubarraek or Moamar Ghadaffi. The North Korean regime has only maintained its military dictatorship, which they feign as communism, by stifling any sense of weakness in the ruling family. If that changes, and Kim Jung Un does not display power, there is always the real threat of a military or civilian takeover. In a country that is no stranger to the food shortages of the 90’s in North Korea, or the auspices of sanctions levied by Chinese Banks with UN backing, this isn’t that far fetched. If that happens Kim Jung Un will die. If you are put in a box between certain death or launching a nuclear weapon, and your first thought is “I wonder what Dennis Rodman thinks”, I’m pretty frightened. This is the world view of the North Korean dictator who holds a bomb 8 times stronger than Hiroshima.
Donald Trump’s dangerous rhertoric puts Kim Jung Un in a box. If Un doesn’t escalate the rhetoric he appears weak to his people and military, and weak dictators die. Smart diplomats look at the situation from the perspective of their opponent and think one or two steps ahead, always choosing their words carefully. Do you think Trump has the depth, or understanding of how his words and actions influence world affairs like JFK did? His latest gif on twitter answers that question. The lack of depth in the man holding the nuclear codes, whose words alone can escalate this situation into a nuclear crisis, don’t seem to give us the fear they would have for 13 Days in 1962. The bombs are bigger and the men, on both sides, are not as stable. I’m not saying we should all go Bert the Turtle, but elections have consequences, and there is little doubt that the US / North Korean relationship appears to be at a dangerous tipping point. At the same time both nations have dangerous men in power. How many dumb-ass tweets does its take to get to the center of a nuclear crisis?
watch your own bobber 